Policy brief on forest restoration and deforestation in Colombia published

NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellow, Eleanor Warren-Thomas, contributed modelling and scenario design work to a new policy brief on forest restoration and deforestation in Colombia, recently published by the FABLE Consortium, part of the UN Sustainable Development and Solutions Network.

This new research by the Colombia team of the FABLE Consortium, an initiative under FOLU, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and Bangor University, shows the opportunities and potential consequences of forest restoration in Colombia. The findings highlight the importance of preventing further deforestation to avoid future forest carbon emissions, and the opportunities to restore forests without impacting agricultural production by focussing on low-intensity pastures. 

Between 2000 and 2020, around 4.9 Million ha of natural forest were turned into grassland in Colombia. In 2021–2022 the most affected macrobasin was the Amazon, which accounted for two-thirds of the deforestation (0.11 Million ha), followed by the Andean with 17%. Between 2005 and 2015, 50% of deforested areas were transformed into pastures with low-productivity cattle ranching. The cultivation of illegal crops remains a problem but in the last 34 years, cattle ranching has overtaken coca farming as the main driver of forest loss outside of the area where agricultural activities are allowed (the 'Agricultural Frontier').

Five policies that aim at halting deforestation and enhancing restoration in Colombia were reviewed. The brief analysed their potential impacts on land use, agricultural production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and 2040 using GLOBIOM-Colombia (a partial equilibrium model calibrated and adapted to the Colombian context). 

The review of policies showed that there is an approximate national target for restoration in Colombia of 1 Million ha. However, restoration policies are not consistent about the total area, the targeted land cover type for restoration, and whether the proposed restoration is passive or active. 

The brief recommends that the revised National Restoration Plan for Colombia considers focussing on areas where ecosystems are most at risk, even if they lie inside the Agricultural Frontier, if agricultural productivity is low and natural regeneration for passive ecological restoration is possible. Further, stopping, displacing, or restricting the expansion of agricultural activity in certain areas to avoid deforestation requires the buy-in from rural communities and farmers. To realise these pathways, Colombia needs to implement a set of complementary interventions, such as incentives, support to formalize land ownership, community roundtables, and policies that support job creation for the rural working population whose livelihood depends on deforestation-related activities.

Read the brief here (a Spanish language version will also be uploaded to the website soon): https://resources.unsdsn.org/ecological-restoration-and-deforestation-control-implications-for-colombias-agriculture-and-climate-goals