IEF member wins Association of European Operational Research Societies award

Congratulations to Dr Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, senior lecturer in economics at BBS and member of the IEF, and his co-authors who have won the Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) award for Best European Journal of Operational Research (EJOR) paper in the Theory and Methodology category.

The paper, Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions, discusses how operational research played a vital role in aiding policymakers during the COVID-19 pandemic. By utilising data from multiple countries, predictive analytics tools were developed to forecast COVID-19 growth rates and demand for products/services during the pandemic. Various models, including statistical, epidemiological, machine learning, and a hybrid approach, were used for forecasting.

The results offered valuable insights to support better decision-making for ongoing and future pandemics discusses how operational research played a vital role in aiding policymakers during the COVID-19 pandemic. By utilising data from multiple countries like USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, predictive analytics tools were developed to forecast COVID-19 growth rates during the pandemic. Various models, including statistical, epidemiological, machine learning, and a hybrid approach based on nearest neighbors and clustering, were used for forecasting. Evaluating the latter models, the authors find the best three forecasting methodologies for each country of their sample. Using these predictions and modelling the excess demand for products and services using auxiliary data like google trends, the authors provide simulations of governmental decisions like lockdown. The results offer valuable insights to support better decision-making for ongoing and future pandemics.

The purpose of the prize is to distinguish the best papers published in EJOR, evaluating them based on scientific quality, originality, and relevance to Operational Research.

Chrysovalantis said, “I am delighted and honoured to receive this reward. The recognition of our efforts is truly gratifying. My co-authors and I take immense pride in this paper as it not only makes a significant contribution to academic literature but also provides insights for policymakers on how they should deal with future unexpected events like COVID-19. Moreover, this prize marks the beginning of a concerted effort by the Business School and by extension, Bangor University to further advance in the field of data analytics by introducing and supporting new academic programs.”